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WAGERBIRD® Alpha Academy · SMT 101 Principles of Sports Markets
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Lesson 04

Implied Probability

Every price can be restated as a probability: the share of the time a position must win to break even at that price. This lesson shows how to make that conversion in each notation.

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SMT 101 · Principles of Sports Markets (9 lessons)Full course syllabus ↗
  1. 01Market Structure and SettlementRead ↗
  2. 02Market Types and PayoffsRead ↗
  3. 03Price Notation (American, Decimal and Fractional)Read ↗
  4. 04Implied ProbabilityRead ↗
  5. 05Operator MarginRead ↗
  6. 06Price Formation and MovementRead ↗
  7. 07Market Efficiency and the Closing PriceRead ↗
  8. 08Position Sizing and Capital AllocationRead ↗
  9. 09Applied Session: The Odds Screen and the BoardRead ↗