WAGERBIRD® Alpha Academy · SMT 100 First Principles · Part II: Price Formation and the Model
Included with every Alpha Terminal planLesson 13
Judging a Model Against the Close
The close is the market's most accurate price. A model is graded by whether the close moves toward its price, counted over many games. That count arrives faster than a win rate and says more.
WAGERBIRD® ALPHA ACADEMY
Included with every Alpha Terminal plan.
Read the full Academy with an active seat: Alpha Plus ($99/mo), Alpha Pro ($199/mo), Alpha Max ($349/mo), or Alpha Desk ($2,995/yr). Want to read a sample first? SMT 101 Lesson 01 is open to everyone.
SMT 100 · Part II: Price Formation and the Model (15 lessons)Full course syllabus ↗
- 01Purpose of a ModelRead ↗
- 02Opening LineRead ↗
- 03Line MovementRead ↗
- 04Closing LineRead ↗
- 05Book FeeRead ↗
- 06Best PriceRead ↗
- 07Team StrengthRead ↗
- 08Home VenueRead ↗
- 09Game ConditionsRead ↗
- 10Style MatchupRead ↗
- 11Applying ThemRead ↗
- 12BacktestingRead ↗
- 13Judging a Model Against the CloseRead ↗
- 14Weekly Calibration CheckRead ↗
- 15The Calibration TableRead ↗