By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 15 to Oct 27), Timo Meier's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for NJ @ DAL is 3.4 (-186).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR @ NJ | 2.5 (-144) | — | 2 | Under | |
| NJ @ WAS | 2.5 (-140) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| COL @ NJ | 2.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| ANA @ NJ | 2.5 (-152) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| LA @ NJ | 2.5 (-154) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| NJ @ DAL | 2.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 0 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.0 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.0 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 · vs NYR | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 17 · @ WAS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 20 · vs COL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +5.5 |
| Oct 22 · vs ANA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 24 · vs LA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ DAL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -2.5 |
Meier's established shooting workload can clear a three-shot requirement without relying on a rebound in finishing.
46 SOG · 11 GP · 12.3% TEAM SHARE — Meier has taken 46 of New Jersey's 375 shots while scoring once. His share of the shooting workload supplies the opportunity, so a higher finishing rate is not required.
16:18 TOI · SECOND LINE · PP2 — His projected line pairs him with Nico Hischier and Luke Evangelista, and he works on the second power-play unit. At his current 16:18 average, regular shifts and second-unit possessions provide separate routes to shots without a first-unit promotion.
Dallas can force his line to dump the puck and deny the second chances that turn zone time into shots. Extended first-unit power plays can leave his group little useful time, while a quiet, low-tempo game can strand him below three shots on net.
Settlement Rule: CASHES TIMO MEIER OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH 3 OR MORE; NO PUSH AT 2.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across New Jersey Devils's 5 primary contributors.
| New Jersey Devils Contributor | Oct 30 @ VEG | Nov 3 vs EDM | Nov 5 vs STL | Nov 7 @ NYI | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes NJ · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Timo Meier NJ · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Arseny Gritsyuk NJ · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jesper Bratt NJ · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Luke Evangelista NJ · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Timo Meier prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | NJ @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 0 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | NJ @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-165) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 15 | NYR @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 12 | OTT @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-122) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Meier's established shooting workload can clear a three-shot requirement without relying on a rebound in finishing.
Counter-Case: Dallas can force his line to dump the puck and deny the second chances that turn zone time into shots. Extended first-unit power plays can leave his group little useful time, while a quiet, low-tempo game can strand him below three shots on net.
Meier's shooting frequency can carry him to three shots even without first-unit power-play minutes.
Counter-Case: A defensive assignment for the Hischier line can take away Meier's offensive-zone shifts. His shorter workload and second-unit power-play position leave less recovery time after a low-volume opening period.
Meier's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: The Rangers can clog the middle and turn Meier's attempts into blocks or misses. A New Jersey lead can also reduce his late attacking shifts before he reaches three recorded shots.
Meier's established individual shot rate supports three shots even after an Ottawa matchup adjustment.
Counter-Case: Ottawa's shot suppression can hold the entire Devils attack below its usual attempt volume. A lead protected through the final period could leave Meier on two shots.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |