Timo Meier (NHL) Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory & CLV Record
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 7), Timo Meier's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5.
6-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Timo Meier)
America/Chicago (CT)| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ @ DAL | 2.5 (-105) | — | 0 | Under | |
| NJ @ COL | 2.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| NJ @ VEG | 2.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| EDM @ NJ | 2.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| STL @ NJ | 2.5 (-145) | 0.0 | 6 | Over | |
| NJ @ NYI | 2.5 (-135) | 0.0 | — | Upcoming |
Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Timo Meier Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.3).
- Window Open Line
- 2.5
- Current Posted Line
- 2.5
- Book Cumulative Step
- 0.0
- Actual Window Avg
- 2.2
- Actual Output Delta
- -0.3
- Modeled Fair Value
- —
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · @ DAL | 2.5 | — | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 28 · @ COL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 30 · @ VEG | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Nov 3 · vs EDM | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs STL | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ NYI | 2.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Timo Meier Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (2 Beat, 1 Tied, 1 Lost)
2 Beat / 1 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 4 settled Timo Meier prop write-ups.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | NJ @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+115) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 0 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 17 | NJ @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-165) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 3 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 15 | NYR @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-140) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 2 | Tied | Read Write-Up → |
| Oct 12 | OTT @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-122) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Archived Settled Timo Meier Prop Write-Ups
Meier's established shooting workload can clear a three-shot requirement without relying on a rebound in finishing.
Counter-Case: Dallas can force his line to dump the puck and deny the second chances that turn zone time into shots. Extended first-unit power plays can leave his group little useful time, while a quiet, low-tempo game can strand him below three shots on net.
Meier's shooting frequency can carry him to three shots even without first-unit power-play minutes.
Counter-Case: A defensive assignment for the Hischier line can take away Meier's offensive-zone shifts. His shorter workload and second-unit power-play position leave less recovery time after a low-volume opening period.
Meier's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play role give him multiple routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: The Rangers can clog the middle and turn Meier's attempts into blocks or misses. A New Jersey lead can also reduce his late attacking shifts before he reaches three recorded shots.
Meier's established individual shot rate supports three shots even after an Ottawa matchup adjustment.
Counter-Case: Ottawa's shot suppression can hold the entire Devils attack below its usual attempt volume. A lead protected through the final period could leave Meier on two shots.
Timo Meier WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release | Close | Actual | CLV Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | NJ @ DAL | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | Beat |
| Oct 17 | NJ @ WAS | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 | Lost |
| Oct 15 | NYR @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 2 | Tied |
| Oct 12 | OTT @ NJ | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 | Beat |
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |