By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 11 to Oct 22), Pavel Dorofeyev's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for NYR @ TOR is 3.2 (-169).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN @ NYR | 2.5 (-160) | — | 2 | Under | |
| TB @ NYR | 2.5 (-120) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| NYR @ NJ | 2.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| NYR @ CBJ | 2.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| ANA @ NYR | 2.5 (-140) | 0.0 | 5 | Over | |
| NYR @ TOR | 2.5 (-164) | 0.0 | 2 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 · vs VAN | 2.5 | — | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs TB | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ NJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 17 · @ CBJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 19 · vs ANA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5 | +2.5 |
| Oct 22 · @ TOR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
Second-line minutes and first-unit power-play work give Pavel Dorofeyev multiple routes to the required shooting volume.
35 SOG · 11 GP — Dorofeyev's recent workload supports a bet on attempts rather than finishing efficiency. Bobrovsky can stop his chances without preventing those saves from counting toward the shot total.
PP1 · 17:06 EXPECTED TOI — Dorofeyev is projected with Miller and Kartye at even strength, preserving a regular offensive role. First-unit power-play shifts add shooting opportunities outside that line's normal rotation.
Extended defensive shifts can keep Miller's line from establishing possession. If the first power-play unit repeatedly feeds other shooters, Dorofeyev can finish with too few official attempts.
Settlement Rule: CASHES PAVEL DOROFEYEV OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SHOTS; NO PUSH.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across New York Rangers's 5 primary contributors.
| New York Rangers Contributor | Nov 1 vs EDM | Nov 3 vs STL | Nov 5 vs PHI | Nov 7 @ SEA | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad NYR · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Alexis Lafrenière NYR · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev NYR · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Adam Fox NYR · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Pavel Dorofeyev prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | NYR @ TOR | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-125) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 2 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Second-line minutes and first-unit power-play work give Pavel Dorofeyev multiple routes to the required shooting volume.
Counter-Case: Extended defensive shifts can keep Miller's line from establishing possession. If the first power-play unit repeatedly feeds other shooters, Dorofeyev can finish with too few official attempts.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |