By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 5 to Oct 15), Owen Tippett's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for PHI @ DET is 2.9 (-119).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ TB | 2.5 (+134) | — | 0 | Under | |
| PHI @ OTT | 2.5 (+130) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| PHI @ BOS | 2.5 (-144) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| CAR @ PHI | 2.5 (+120) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| SEA @ PHI | 2.5 (-110) | 0.0 | 1 | Under | |
| PHI @ DET | 2.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.5).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 · @ TB | 2.5 | — | 0 | -2.5 |
| Oct 8 · @ OTT | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 10 · @ BOS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 11 · vs CAR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 13 · vs SEA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Oct 15 · @ DET | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
Tippett's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access give him multiple routes to three shots.
220 SOG IN 81 GP · 20 SOG IN 8 GP — Tippett's shooting has persisted across the prior season and the opening games of this one. He does not need a goal or a rebound conversion for those attempts to count toward this market.
SECOND LINE · PP1 · 17.5 MIN EST. — Skating with Zegras and Couturier gives Tippett an even-strength route to receiving the puck in shooting positions. First-unit power-play work adds offensive-zone possessions without requiring his line to dominate Detroit at five-on-five.
Detroit can force Tippett into blocked attempts by denying clean entries and keeping him outside the slot. Extended Philadelphia defensive shifts can leave him with only two official shots even if he receives his usual attacking assignments.
Settlement Rule: CASHES OWEN TIPPETT OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST THREE OFFICIAL SHOTS; A PUSH IS IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Philadelphia Flyers's 5 primary contributors.
| Philadelphia Flyers Contributor | Nov 1 vs UTA | Nov 3 vs MIN | Nov 5 @ NYR | Nov 8 @ CGY | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Tippett PHI · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | — | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Tyson Foerster PHI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Matvei Michkov PHI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Sean Couturier PHI · Shots on Goal | — | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Trevor Zegras PHI · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → |
Market Suppressing Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bearish
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Owen Tippett prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | PHI @ DET | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+110) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Tippett's established shooting volume and first-unit power-play access give him multiple routes to three shots.
Counter-Case: Detroit can force Tippett into blocked attempts by denying clean entries and keeping him outside the slot. Extended Philadelphia defensive shifts can leave him with only two official shots even if he receives his usual attacking assignments.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 7 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 51 | 11 | 23 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 9 CT) | 45 | 9 | 23 |