By WAGERBIRD® Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (ET)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WAGERBIRD Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 31 to Nov 10), Lucas Raymond's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WAGERBIRD's modeled fair line for DET @ STL is 3.1.
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.7).
Raymond's established shooting share and access to the first power-play unit support a three-shot outcome without requiring Detroit to score heavily.
55 SOG · 18 GAMES · 10.62% SHOT SHARE — Raymond's reconstructed sample contains 55 shots in 18 games, or 10.62% of Detroit's 518 shots. That shooting share allows him to reach the required count without needing an unusually large team shot total.
LINE 2 · PP1 · 20.2 MIN EXPECTED — Raymond is projected with Michael Brandsegg-Nygård and Andrew Copp and appears on Detroit's first power-play unit. Expected ice time of 20.2 minutes gives him opportunities to accumulate shots through both his regular line and the primary special-teams group.
St. Louis can keep Raymond's line defending and interrupt controlled entries before he reaches shooting positions. Power-play possessions can also turn him into a distributor while teammates take the attempts, leaving him below three shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES LUCAS RAYMOND OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH 3 OR MORE OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Detroit Red Wings's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+11.9 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 14.4 vs. 2.5 Posted Team Total)
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Lucas Raymond prop write-up.
WAGERBIRD grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 9 ET).
