By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 9), J.T. Miller's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 1.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for NYR @ EDM is 2.2 (-182).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA @ NYR | 1.5 (-130) | — | 6 | Over | |
| EDM @ NYR | 1.5 (-155) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| STL @ NYR | 1.5 (-127) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| PHI @ NYR | 1.5 (-135) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| NYR @ SEA | 1.5 (-134) | 0.0 | 2 | Over | |
| NYR @ EDM | 1.5 (-156) | 0.0 | — | Fair 2.2 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +1.9 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.9 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 · vs LA | 1.5 | — | 6 | +4.5 |
| Nov 1 · vs EDM | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Nov 3 · vs STL | 1.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +2.5 |
| Nov 5 · vs PHI | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ SEA | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2 | +0.5 |
| Nov 9 · @ EDM | 1.5 | 0.0 | — | — |
Miller can reach two shots through scoring-line minutes and renewed shot initiation without needing a return to the first power-play unit.
9 SOG · 3 DATED GAMES — Miller recorded two, four and three shots in the November 1, 3 and 5 games. The latter two performances came after his first-unit power-play demotion, giving him an even-strength route to the required attempts.
18:44 TOI/G · 19 MIN PROJECTED — Miller centers Kartye and Perreault, preserving a scoring-line assignment despite his secondary power-play role. A workload near 19 minutes, close to his 18:44 average, gives him repeated opportunities to initiate shots without requiring a large special-teams bonus.
Long defensive-zone shifts against the top attacking line can leave Miller spending his minutes without an attempt. A penalty-heavy game can also give the first power-play unit most of the extra-man opportunity, while blocked or wide attempts do not count as shots on goal.
Settlement Rule: CASHES J.T. MILLER OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST TWO OFFICIAL SHOTS ON GOAL · NO PUSH.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across New York Rangers's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+11.8 Shots Desk Dislocation (Core-6 Implies 14.3 vs. 2.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | 48.8% | 14.3 | 2.5 (-150) | +11.8 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Pavel Dorofeyev NYR · Prev 2.5 (0.0) | 2.5 | 12.2% | 100.0%(+87.8% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#2 Adam Fox NYR · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 9.6% | 60.0%(+50.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 J.T. Miller NYR · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 15.7% | 60.0%(+44.3% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#4 Gabe Perreault NYR · Prev 1.5 (0.0) | 1.5 | 11.3% | 60.0%(+48.7% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share |
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled J.T. Miller prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | NYR @ EDM | Shots on Goal | Over 1.5 (-115) · Fanatics | 1.5 | — | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 8 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 51 | 11 | 23 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 10 CT) | 45 | 9 | 22 |