Sportsbook Posted Shots on Goal Line Trajectory (Last 1 Active Game)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Posted Book Line WagerBird Fair (2.9 / -123)
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Jake DeBrusk's shots on goal line at 2.5 for VAN @ NYI (Oct 13). WagerBird's modeled fair line for VAN @ NYI is 2.9 (-123).
1-Game Posted Shots on Goal Ledger (Jake DeBrusk)
America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)
Matchup
Posted Line
Move
Actual
Result
VAN @ NYI
2.5 (+115)
—
2
Under
Canonical pre-game posted line across 4 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Compare Licensed Partner Books: Execute or compare live quotes and prediction markets (Kalshi code WBIRD1).
Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing5-Game Window
Jake DeBrusk Shots on Goal Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (-0.3).
Unpriced Book Step-Lag-0.3Max Single-Game Book Step: 0.0
Window Open Line
2.5
Current Posted Line
2.5
Book Cumulative Step
0.0
Actual Window Avg
2.2
Actual Output Delta
-0.3
Modeled Fair Value
2.9 (-123)
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Game (CT)
Posted Line
Book Step
Actual
Box Surplus
Sep 29 · @ EDM
2.5
—
0
-2.5
Oct 1 · vs EDM
2.5
0.0
4
+1.5
Oct 8 · @ CAR
—
—
4
—
Oct 11 · @ NYR
2.5
0.0
1
-1.5
Oct 13 · @ NYI
2.5
0.0
2
-0.5
WagerBird Write-Up · Jake DeBrusk Shots on Goal (Over 2.5)
Full Dossier Unlocked
Write-Up Thesis
DeBrusk’s top-line and first-power-play assignments preserve a path to three shots even in a low-scoring Vancouver game.
01 · Fundamental Driver
Shooting role retained
219 SOG / 81 GP · 16 SOG / 5 GP · PP1 — DeBrusk’s 219 shots over 81 games support a durable shooting baseline, while his current 16 shots through five games show continued volume. Playing with Pettersson and Lekkerimaki and joining the first power-play unit gives him multiple routes to attempts on target. [Historical statistics](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/van/season/2026/seasontype/2) · [Current shots](https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/vancouver-canucks-team-stats?category=shooting&season=2026&seasonType=reg&sort=s&sortOrder=desc) · [Deployment](https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vancouver-canucks/line-combinations)
02 · Fundamental Driver
Share of a modest attack
10.4% PRIOR SHARE · 14.6% CURRENT SHARE · 24.55 VAN SOG FORECAST — Blending DeBrusk’s historical 10.4% shot share with his current 14.6% share avoids relying entirely on the larger early-season rate. Against a 24.55-shot Vancouver forecast, that share leaves a route to three shots through repeated involvement rather than requiring a high-scoring Canucks performance. [Historical totals](https://www.espn.com/nhl/team/stats/_/name/van/season/2026/seasontype/2) · [Current player volume](https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/vancouver-canucks-team-stats?category=shooting&season=2026&seasonType=reg&sort=s&sortOrder=desc) · [Team volume](https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401892495/canucks-islanders)
Red Team · Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Thesis Invalidation Risks
The Islanders can deny Vancouver offensive-zone possession and steer DeBrusk away from shooting positions. A reduced even-strength shift load would make him too dependent on power-play opportunities to reach three shots.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JAKE DEBRUSK OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL AT 3 OR MORE OFFICIAL SHOTS; THE HALF-SHOT LINE CANNOT PUSH.
WagerBird Nucleus Drift · Team Prop Signal
VAN @ NYI · Vancouver Canucks Shots on Goal Nucleus Drift ()
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Vancouver Canucks's 5 primary contributors.
VAN Nucleus Drift5 of 5 Core Props Held FlatBalanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
DeBrusk’s top-line and first-power-play assignments preserve a path to three shots even in a low-scoring Vancouver game.
Counter-Case: The Islanders can deny Vancouver offensive-zone possession and steer DeBrusk away from shooting positions. A reduced even-strength shift load would make him too dependent on power-play opportunities to reach three shots.
NHL Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (50 Beat, 10 Tied, 21 Lost)
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).