By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 21 to Nov 4), Jack Quinn's posted shots on goal line has held net flat at 2.5. WagerBird's modeled fair line for OTT @ BUF is 3 (-131).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI @ BUF | 2.5 (-104) | — | 4 | Over | |
| BUF @ WAS | 2.5 (+102) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| BUF @ SJ | 2.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 3 | Over | |
| BUF @ ANA | 2.5 (-114) | 0.0 | 4 | Over | |
| BUF @ LA | 2.5 (+100) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| OTT @ BUF | 2.5 (-105) | 0.0 | 1 | Under |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (0.0) tracks actual window production (+0.3).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · vs PHI | 2.5 | — | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 24 · @ WAS | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 27 · @ SJ | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 29 · @ ANA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 | +1.5 |
| Oct 31 · @ LA | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs OTT | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1 | -1.5 |
Quinn’s expanded minutes and steady recent shooting give him a credible path to a third shot on goal.
16 SOG · LAST 5 · 8 OF 14 AT 3+ — Quinn’s recent shot production is distributed across several games rather than concentrated in one exceptional performance. Repeated nights around the required threshold make the third shot a realistic result of his ordinary workload.
19:16 EXPECTED TOI · 3:40 PP AVERAGE — Quinn’s current minutes give him more opportunities than his prior-season role, and his first-unit assignment preserves access to advantageous attacking situations. His projected partnership with Ostlund and Doan also provides a regular even-strength route to attempts outside special teams.
Ostlund and Doan can finish the possessions on which Quinn supplies the setup pass. A quick special-teams goal or a shortened attacking shift can leave him with only two shots on target.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JACK QUINN FULL GAME OVER 2.5 SHOTS ON GOAL WITH AT LEAST 3 OFFICIAL SOG; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Buffalo Sabres's 5 primary contributors.
| Buffalo Sabres Contributor | Oct 29 @ ANA | Oct 31 @ LA | Nov 4 vs OTT | Nov 6 vs CBJ | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson BUF · Shots on Goal | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Rasmus Dahlin BUF · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Zach Benson BUF · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jack Quinn BUF · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Owen Power BUF · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jack Quinn prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | OTT @ BUF | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (+120) · Fanatics | 2.5 | 1 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Quinn’s expanded minutes and steady recent shooting give him a credible path to a third shot on goal.
Counter-Case: Ostlund and Doan can finish the possessions on which Quinn supplies the setup pass. A quick special-teams goal or a shortened attacking shift can leave him with only two shots on target.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |