By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Jack Eichel's shots on goal line at 2.5 for TOR @ VEG (Oct 8). WagerBird's modeled fair line for TOR @ VEG is 3.4 (-186).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ VEG | 2.5 (-150) | — | 6 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 3 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Book step adjustment (-1.0) tracks actual window production (-0.7).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 · vs CHI | 3.5 | — | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 2 · vs ANA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 4 · @ VAN | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Oct 6 · @ SEA | 2.5 | -1.0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Oct 8 · vs TOR | 2.5 | 0.0 | 6 | +3.5 |
Eichel’s established shooting volume and first-unit role give him multiple routes to three shots against Toronto.
260 SOG · 74 GP — Eichel recorded 260 shots over 74 games last season. That volume makes repeated shot attempts a normal part of his first-line role rather than a requirement for an exceptional scoring night.
32.44 TOR SA/G · PP1 — Toronto allowed 32.44 shots per game last season, and Eichel projects on Vegas’s first power-play unit. Offensive-zone possessions on that unit add chances to his even-strength shooting volume.
A Vegas lead could move possession away from sustained attacking shifts. His early-season shot pace is lower than last season’s, and his first-line teammates can take the attempts instead.
Settlement Rule: CASHES JACK EICHEL FULL GAME SHOTS ON GOAL OVER 2.5 WITH AT LEAST THREE SHOTS. · NO PUSH ON THE HALF
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted shots on goal lines across Vegas Golden Knights's 5 primary contributors.
| Vegas Golden Knights Contributor | Oct 30 vs NJ | Nov 2 @ BOS | Nov 3 @ PIT | Nov 5 @ DET | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner VEG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jack Eichel VEG · Shots on Goal | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Shea Theodore VEG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| William Karlsson VEG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Mark Stone VEG · Shots on Goal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Jack Eichel prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | TOR @ VEG | Shots on Goal | Over 2.5 (-144) · FanDuel | 2.5 | 6 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Eichel’s established shooting volume and first-unit role give him multiple routes to three shots against Toronto.
Counter-Case: A Vegas lead could move possession away from sustained attacking shifts. His early-season shot pace is lower than last season’s, and his first-line teammates can take the attempts instead.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 50 | 10 | 21 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 48 | 9 | 21 |