Indianapolis can stay in an upset script by sustaining rushing possessions against a Dallas defense that has allowed efficient offense.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
Dallas ranked last in the seven-game defensive EPA snapshot at +0.14 EPA allowed per play, then allowed 467 total yards against Arizona. That gives Indianapolis a route to sustaining possessions without needing every drive to produce an explosive gain. Finishing those possessions keeps the game within reach of a late decisive score.
Prescott averaged 6.05 yards per attempt over his last three starts compared with 6.77 across the season sample. Dallas can still finish drives with touchdowns, but shorter average gains make sustained execution more important. For Indianapolis, forcing extra snaps creates more opportunities for a stop before the game separates.
Jonathan Taylor is the listed lead back and carries an expected workload of 18 rushing attempts in this matchup. Sustained rushing possessions give Indianapolis a way to avoid repeatedly placing Jones in obvious passing situations. Extending those possessions also keeps Dallas from turning a narrow lead into a string of additional opportunities.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Daniel Jones can erase a competitive possession game with interceptions or sacks that leave Indianapolis chasing the score. Dallas can then lean on its rushing game while Prescott attacks favorable passing situations. Lamb and Pickens can also create touchdowns without requiring a long series of successful plays. Indianapolis needs cleaner quarterback execution than its recent games have provided.