By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted 3-pointers made total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Sportsbooks have posted Royce O'Neale's 3-pointers made line at 1.5 for CHA @ BKN (Oct 21). WagerBird's modeled fair line for CHA @ BKN is 2.4 (-224).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHA @ BKN | 1.5 (-142) | — | 2 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Insufficient 6-game box-score history to measure book step-lag.
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 · @ BKN | 1.5 | — | 2 | +0.5 |
O'Neale's perimeter-heavy shot profile and Charlotte's backcourt absences create a path to multiple made threes.
6.7 3PA · 40.8% 3P · 2025-26 — O'Neale averaged 6.7 three-point attempts against 8.0 total field-goal attempts last season, so his offense was already concentrated outside. A projected 6.0 attempts gives him multiple opportunities without requiring a primary scoring role.
WHITE + KNUEPPEL OUT · 26 MIN EXPECTED — White and Knueppel are Out, removing two perimeter options from Charlotte's rotation. O'Neale can fill those possessions as a floor spacer, although Allen's return keeps the projected workload at 26 minutes rather than assuming an expanded starter's shift.
Allen's return can reduce O'Neale's minutes or send him into a lower-touch lineup. If Charlotte's ball-handlers attack before the defense has to rotate, he can finish with too few catch-and-shoot chances.
Settlement Rule: CASHES ROYCE O'NEALE OVER 1.5 THREES WITH 2 OR MORE MADE THREES; NO PUSH AT 1.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Charlotte Hornets's 5 primary contributors.
| Charlotte Hornets Contributor | Nov 2 vs DET | Nov 4 @ BKN | Nov 6 vs BOS | Nov 9 vs CLE | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller CHA · Points | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | — | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Naz Reid CHA · Points | 15.5 | 15.5 | 16.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Grayson Allen CHA · Points | 11.5 | 10.5 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dennis Schröder CHA · Points | 9.5 | 7.5 | — | — | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ | |
| Royce O'Neale CHA · Points | — | — | 6.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | Flat → |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
0 Beat / 0 Tied / 1 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Royce O'Neale prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | CHA @ BKN | 3-Pointers Made | Over 1.5 (-146) · FanDuel | 1.5 | 2 | Lost | Read Write-Up → |
O'Neale's perimeter-heavy shot profile and Charlotte's backcourt absences create a path to multiple made threes.
Counter-Case: Allen's return can reduce O'Neale's minutes or send him into a lower-touch lineup. If Charlotte's ball-handlers attack before the defense has to rotate, he can finish with too few catch-and-shoot chances.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 8 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 87 | 12 | 41 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 10 CT) | 87 | 12 | 41 |