By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted assists total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 27 to Nov 7), sportsbooks adjusted Nolan Traore's posted assists line upward in 3 of 5 game-over-game steps from 2.5 to 4.5 (+2.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for BKN @ ATL is 3.3 (-338).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN @ BOS | 2.5 (-160) | — | 3 | Over | |
| DET @ BKN | 3.5 (-105) | +1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| BKN @ IND | 4.5 (-104) | +1.0 | 6 | Over | |
| BKN @ NYK | 3.5 (-120) | -1.0 | 4 | Over | |
| CHA @ BKN | 3.5 (-118) | 0.0 | 2 | Under | |
| BKN @ ATL | 4.5 (+140) | +1.0 | — | Fair 3.3 |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 6 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Books adjusted +2.0 vs. +0.9 actual output delta (-1.1 Book Over-Adjustment).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 · @ BOS | 2.5 | — | 3 | +0.5 |
| Oct 30 · vs DET | 3.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Nov 1 · @ IND | 4.5 | +1.0 | 6 | +1.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ NYK | 3.5 | -1.0 | 4 | +0.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs CHA | 3.5 | 0.0 | 2 | -1.5 |
| Nov 7 · @ ATL | 4.5 | +1.0 | — | — |
Shared backcourt creation leaves Traore with less passing volume than his increased playing time might suggest.
22 AST · 8 GAMES · 26 MIN EXPECTED — Traore recorded 22 assists across eight appearances and stayed at four or fewer in six of them. A longer stint can increase his scoring chances without making him the final passer on every productive possession.
BROWN 20 MIN, 4 AST · MANN 16 MIN, 2 AST — Mikel Brown Jr. supplied four assists in 20 minutes and Terance Mann two in 16 minutes in the latest game. Their involvement provides alternative routes into the offense rather than funneling all creation through Traore.
If Traore becomes the first option to initiate the offense, his passing opportunities can expand quickly. Early makes on his drive-and-kick passes and easy transition finishes would turn ordinary involvement into a larger assist total.
Settlement Rule: CASHES NOLAN TRAORE FULL GAME ASSISTS UNDER 4.5 WITH FOUR OR FEWER ASSISTS; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE.
Reconciles bottom-up pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across Brooklyn Nets's primary 6-man rotation against the top-down posted team total.
+1.3 Pts Desk Equilibrium (Core-6 Implies 110.8 vs. 109.5 Posted Team Total)
| Core-6 Sum | Core-6 Share | Implied Total | Posted Total | Reconciliation Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85.0 | 76.7% | 110.8 | 109.5 (-108) | +1.3 |
| Core-6 Player | Tonight Line | Team Scoring Share % | Tonight's Implied Prop Share % | 6-Game Line Drift | 6G Trend | Outcome Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN · Prev 20.5 (+2.0) | 22.5 | 17.8% | 20.5%(+2.7% vs Hist) | +1.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#2 Julius Randle BKN · Prev 20.5 (0.0) | 20.5 | 17.1% | 18.7%(+1.6% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Steady Share | |
#3 Mikel Brown Jr. BKN · Prev 12.5 (0.0) | 12.5 | 11.0% | 11.4%(+0.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Steady Share | |
#4 Nolan Traore BKN · Prev 10.5 (+1.0) | 11.5 | 13.7% | 10.5%(-3.2% vs Hist) | +4.0 | Team Tide Shift | |
#5 Moritz Wagner BKN · Prev 9.5 (0.0) | 9.5 | 10.7% | 8.7%(-2.0% vs Hist) | +2.0 | Steady Share | |
#6 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN · Prev 7.5 (+1.0) | 8.5 | 6.4% | 7.8%(+1.4% vs Hist) | 0.0 | Team Tide Shift |
1 active Nolan Traore prop write-up tracked awaiting closing line settlement.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | BKN @ ATL | Assists | Under 4.5 (-136) · DraftKings | 4.5 | — | — | Read Write-Up → |
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |