By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
Pre-game sportsbook posted rebounds total each game vs. WagerBird Modeled Fair Line.
Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 24 to Nov 4), sportsbooks adjusted Derik Queen's posted rebounds line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 7.5 to 6.5 (-1.0). WagerBird's modeled fair line for UTA @ NOP is 7.5 (-184).
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Posted Line | Move | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOP @ DEN | 7.5 (+105) | — | 8 | Over | |
| DEN @ NOP | 6.5 (-138) | -1.0 | 12 | Over | |
| SAC @ NOP | 7.5 (+114) | +1.0 | 2 | Under | |
| ATL @ NOP | 7.5 (+126) | 0.0 | 8 | Over | |
| NOP @ MEM | 6.5 (+112) | -1.0 | 7 | Over | |
| UTA @ NOP | 6.5 (-115) | 0.0 | 9 | Over |
Canonical pre-game posted line across 5 licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.
Actual output +0.2 vs. -1.0 book step adjustment (+1.2 Unpriced Book Lag).
| Game (CT) | Posted Line | Book Step | Actual | Box Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ DEN | 7.5 | — | 8 | +0.5 |
| Oct 28 · vs DEN | 6.5 | -1.0 | 12 | +5.5 |
| Oct 29 · vs SAC | 7.5 | +1.0 | 2 | -5.5 |
| Oct 31 · vs ATL | 7.5 | 0.0 | 8 | +0.5 |
| Nov 2 · @ MEM | 6.5 | -1.0 | 7 | +0.5 |
| Nov 4 · vs UTA | 6.5 | 0.0 | 9 | +2.5 |
Queen's established rebounding rate can get him to seven without an expanded workload while Missi is sidelined.
7.8 RPG · 23.6 MPG — Queen's early-season production is 7.8 rebounds in 23.6 minutes, following 7.1 rebounds in 25.0 minutes last season. That rate gives him a route to seven through ordinary center work rather than an increase in shots or offensive touches.
24 MIN · 7 REB LAST GAME — Queen collected seven rebounds during a 24-minute bench appearance against Memphis. Missi's absence leaves center minutes available, and that recent workload shows Queen can reach the required count without taking every frontcourt possession.
Matkovic can take the closing center minutes, especially if Queen picks up early fouls. Better Utah shooting or an early New Orleans pullaway can remove the missed shots and late possessions he needs.
Settlement Rule: CASHES DERIK QUEEN OVER 6.5 REBOUNDS WITH 7 OR MORE; PUSH IMPOSSIBLE AT 6.5.
Tracks game-by-game pre-game sportsbook posted points lines across New Orleans Pelicans's 5 primary contributors.
| New Orleans Pelicans Contributor | Oct 31 vs ATL | Nov 2 @ MEM | Nov 4 vs UTA | Nov 6 vs MIN | Game-Over-Game Move | Posted Line Trend | Trend Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson NOP · Points | 21.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Trey Murphy III NOP · Points | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Dejounte Murray NOP · Points | 16.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 16.5 | 0.0 | Flat → | |
| Jeremiah Fears NOP · Points | 16.5 | 16.5 | 15.5 | 13.5 | -1.0 | Trending Down ↓ | |
| Saddiq Bey NOP · Points | 12.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 | +1.0 | Trending Up ↑ |
Balanced Core Scoring Distribution — Implied Team Total Pressure: Neutral
Market Expanding Team Scoring Ceiling — Implied Team Total Pressure: Bullish
1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Derik Queen prop write-up.
| Date (CT) | Matchup | Market | Release Quote | Closing Line | Actual | CLV Grade | Write-Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | UTA @ NOP | Rebounds | Over 6.5 (+104) · DraftKings | 6.5 | 9 | Beat | Read Write-Up → |
Queen's established rebounding rate can get him to seven without an expanded workload while Missi is sidelined.
Counter-Case: Matkovic can take the closing center minutes, especially if Queen picks up early fouls. Better Utah shooting or an early New Orleans pullaway can remove the missed shots and late possessions he needs.
WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).
| Prop Lane Window | Beat Close | Tied Close | Lost Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date (from Sep 23 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |
| Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT) | 73 | 11 | 36 |