New Mexico State's recent empty possessions and Missouri State's uneven touchdown finishing limit the combined score.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
New Mexico State scored 14 points across its last two games, using 105 offensive plays. That span produced 517 yards, leaving the offense needing more efficient ways to extend drives. If possessions keep ending without points, the other offense has to supply a much larger share of the scoring. [212.18–20] [212.55–57] [213.18–20] [213.59–60]
Missouri State did not score an offensive touchdown against FIU and converted 6 of 16 third downs. A defensive fumble return supplied a touchdown, making the final point total stronger than the offensive production alone. Without another scoring shortcut, the offense has to turn more sustained possessions into touchdowns.
The eight-game snapshots show New Mexico State converting 12 of 21 red-zone trips into touchdowns and Missouri State converting 15 of 28. These are touchdown rates rather than rates of merely coming away with points. Settling for field goals instead of touchdowns slows scoring accumulation even when both offenses reach scoring range. [161.52–53] [162.51–53]
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Hedden can find AJ Williams III for explosives before Missouri State's pass rush arrives. Belin can attack a defense that just conceded 30 points to Liberty if his protection holds. A return touchdown or turnover-created short field can add points without using normal offensive possessions. A close fourth quarter can also produce hurry-up scoring and overtime.