Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1. FC Köln: Total Goals (Over/Under) Odds & Vig-Free Fair Value
Prices as of .
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
- WagerBird Signal Status
- - No Pick (Market Movement)
- Current Consensus across 30 books
- 3.5 (21 consensus books · 30 tracked)
- Market Move
- 3.5 to 3.5 (flat since open)
- Lane CLV record
- SOCCER game totals: 37 Beat / 12 Tied / 31 Lost (80 measured)
Why is the B04 @ KOE total Goals (Over/Under) moving?
- Market consensus updated (3.6% implied probability) toward Under across 5 tracked sportsbooks.
Vig-free consensus and best partner price
B04 @ KOE Total Goals (Over/Under) Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | Over | Under | Updated (CT) | Execution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 3.5+110 | 3.5-150 | BetMGM | |
| Caesars | 3.5+108 | 3.5-137 | Caesars | |
| DraftKings | 3.5+115 | 3.5-145 | DraftKings | |
| FanDuel | 3.5+114 | 3.5-140 | FanDuel | |
| Fanatics | 3.5+115 | 3.5-150 | Fanatics |
Full market: 30 sportsbooks, consensus 3.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.
Market Movement Analysis: B04 @ KOE Total Goals (Over/Under)
The Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1. FC Köln total opened at 3.5 on WagerBird's per-book price tape (first recorded Mon, Nov 2, 11:00 PM CT) and currently sits at 3.5 across 30 tracked sportsbooks, representing an unchanged median since the opening quote. Scheduled kickoff is Sun, Nov 8, 8:30 AM CT, and all live sportsbook quotes on this page are timestamped as of Sun, Nov 8, 12:10 AM CT.
At Sat, Nov 7, 11:51 PM CT, 5 quoting sportsbooks adjusted this market in the same direction toward Under by a median of 3.6% implied probability. Broad repricing across multiple independent operators reflects consolidated market order flow and updated consensus pricing on the Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1. FC Köln total.
Across the 30 sportsbooks currently quoting the Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1. FC Köln total, the top-to-bottom market spread is 1.0 pt, creating measurable price dispersion for bettors comparing lines across licensed operators.
Stripping out sportsbook overround (vig), the 21-book consensus prices Over at 3.5 +124 (44.6% vig-free probability) and Under at 3.5 -124 (55.4% vig-free probability).
Best execution prices among licensed partner sportsbooks right now: Over 3.5 +115 at DraftKings; Under 3.5 -137 at Caesars.
In the SOCCER game totals betting lane, WagerBird's released plays have beaten the release book's closing line 37 times, tied 12, and lost 31 season to date (80 graded releases through 2026-11-07). Every historical settled release can be verified in the downloadable CSV audit log below.
SOCCER Game Totals Closing-Line Value Record (37 Beat, 12 Tied, 31 Lost)
Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)| Window | Beat | Tied | Lost | Measured | Beat % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date | 37 | 12 | 31 | 80 | 54.4% |
| Last 30 days | 36 | 9 | 28 | 73 | 56.3% |
WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-07).
Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)
Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1. FC Köln (Total Goals (Over/Under)) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):
<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/soccer/bayer-04-leverkusen-at-1-fc-k-ln-total-2026-11-08-34332" title="Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 1. FC Köln Total Goals (Over/Under) Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/soccer/bayer-04-leverkusen-at-1-fc-k-ln-total-2026-11-08-34332">B04 @ KOE Total Goals (Over/Under) Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>