Aston Villa at Manchester United: 3-Way Moneyline (1X2) Odds & Vig-Free Fair Value
Prices as of .
By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)
- WagerBird Signal Status
- - No Pick (Market Movement)
- Current Consensus across 53 books
- AVL +253 / Empate (Draw) +313 / MAN +111 (53 consensus books · 53 tracked)
- Market Move
- MAN 44.4% to 50.0% (5.6% implied probability toward MAN)
- Lane CLV record
- SOCCER moneylines: 11 Beat / 2 Tied / 8 Lost (21 measured)
Why is the AVL @ MAN 3-Way Moneyline (1X2) moving?
- Market consensus updated (3.1% implied probability) toward MAN across 9 tracked sportsbooks.
- Market consensus updated (2.7% implied probability) toward MAN across 53 tracked sportsbooks.
Vig-free consensus and best partner price
AVL @ MAN 3-Way Moneyline (1X2) Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks
| Sportsbook | AVL | Empate (Draw) | MAN | Updated (CT) | Execution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +230 | +290 | -102 | BetMGM | |
| Caesars | +225 | +285 | -106 | Caesars | |
| DraftKings | +240 | +300 | +100 | DraftKings | |
| FanDuel | +230 | +290 | +100 | FanDuel | |
| Fanatics | +230 | +300 | +100 | Fanatics |
Full market: 53 sportsbooks, consensus AVL +253 / Empate (Draw) +313 / MAN +111. Links shown for licensed books we work with.
Market Movement Analysis: AVL @ MAN 3-Way Moneyline (1X2)
Across 53 tracked sportsbooks, the AVL @ MAN 3-Way Moneyline (1X2) implied probability moved from 44.4% at open to 50.0% toward MAN (5.6% implied probability).
Best current licensed partner quotes: AVL +240 at DraftKings; Empate (Draw) +300 at DraftKings; MAN +100 at DraftKings. Quoting books currently span 5.2% implied probability across the market.
Three-way (1X2) vig-free consensus across 53 sportsbooks prices Aston Villa at Manchester United at AVL +253 (28.3% vig-free), Empate (Draw) +313 (24.2% vig-free), MAN +111 (47.5% vig-free). Each outcome probability is normalized across Away, Empate (Draw), and Home so total vig is removed before comparing against partner sportsbook payouts.
Recorded consensus updates prior to kickoff (Sun, Nov 8, 10:30 AM CT): Sun, Nov 8, 9:22 AM CT: Market consensus updated (3.1% implied probability) toward MAN across 9 tracked sportsbooks. Sun, Nov 8, 9:50 AM CT: Market consensus updated (2.7% implied probability) toward MAN across 53 tracked sportsbooks.
In the SOCCER moneylines lane (Season to date, through 2026-11-07), WagerBird's audited releases stand at 11 beat, 2 tied, and 8 lost across 21 measured markets graded against the pre-kickoff closing price at the release book.
SOCCER Moneylines Closing-Line Value Record (11 Beat, 2 Tied, 8 Lost)
Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)| Window | Beat | Tied | Lost | Measured | Beat % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season to date | 11 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 57.9% |
| Last 30 days | 11 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 61.1% |
WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-07).
Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)
Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Aston Villa at Manchester United (3-Way Moneyline (1X2)) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):
<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/soccer/aston-villa-at-manchester-united-3-way-moneyline-2026-11-08-34326" title="Aston Villa at Manchester United 3-Way Moneyline (1X2) Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/soccer/aston-villa-at-manchester-united-3-way-moneyline-2026-11-08-34326">AVL @ MAN 3-Way Moneyline (1X2) Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>