NBA Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: DALPosted Line Trajectory: Flat (0.0 over 6 games)

Daniel Gafford (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NBA Player Props CLV Counts
73 Beat · 11 Tied · 36 Lost
Daniel Gafford Releases: 1 Beat / 1 Tied / 0 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 6), Daniel Gafford's posted points line has held net flat at 8.5.10.59.78.98.17.36.58.58.57.59.58.58.5Oct 26DAL @ MIAOct 28OKC @ DALOct 30HOU @ DALNov 2SAC @ DALNov 4DAL @ SASNov 6UTA @ DAL

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 26 to Nov 6), Daniel Gafford's posted points line has held net flat at 8.5.

6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Daniel Gafford)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
DAL @ MIA8.5 (-115)—8Under
OKC @ DAL8.5 (-112)0.07Under
HOU @ DAL7.5 (-118)-1.018Over
SAC @ DAL9.5 (-120)+2.020Over
DAL @ SAS8.5 (-120)-1.02Under
UTA @ DAL8.5 (-116)0.07Under

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Book Lagging Production6-Game Window

Daniel Gafford Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Actual output +1.8 vs. 0.0 book step adjustment (+1.8 Unpriced Book Lag).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag+1.8Max Single-Game Book Step: +2.0
Window Open Line
8.5
Current Posted Line
8.5
Book Cumulative Step
0.0
Actual Window Avg
10.3
Actual Output Delta
+1.8
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Daniel Gafford Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Points Line vs Actual Box-Score Output2508Oct 26@ MIA7Oct 28vs OKC18Oct 30vs HOU20Nov 2vs SAC2Nov 4@ SAS7Nov 6vs UTA
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 26 · @ MIA8.5—8-0.5
Oct 28 · vs OKC8.50.07-1.5
Oct 30 · vs HOU7.5-1.018+10.5
Nov 2 · vs SAC9.5+2.020+10.5
Nov 4 · @ SAS8.5-1.02-6.5
Nov 6 · vs UTA8.50.07-1.5
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Daniel Gafford Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Daniel Gafford prop write-up.

Daniel Gafford CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 4DAL @ SASPointsOver 8.5 (-116) · DraftKings8.52BeatRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled Daniel Gafford Prop Write-Ups

Nov 4 CT · DAL @ SAS · PointsFull Write-Up →

Gafford's recent center workload and increased finishing volume provide a credible route to nine points.

Counter-Case: Wembanyama can break up the rolls and finishes that feed Gafford's scoring. Irving and Flagg can keep more possessions for themselves, while Dallas's modest scoring forecast leaves little room for wasted center touches.

Daniel Gafford WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Nov 4DAL @ SASPointsOver 8.58.52Beat
Oct 21DAL @ HOUReboundsOver 6.56.53Tied

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)731136
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)731136