NBA Player Prop & CLV DossierTeam: LALPosted Line Trajectory: Trending Down (-2.0 over 6 games)

Collin Sexton (NBA) Posted Points Line Trajectory & CLV Record

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

NBA Player Props CLV Counts
73 Beat · 11 Tied · 36 Lost
Collin Sexton Releases: 1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost

Sportsbook Posted Points Line Trajectory (Last 6 Active Games)

Pre-game sportsbook posted points total each game.

Posted Book Line
Across the last 6 active games (Oct 23 to Nov 6), sportsbooks adjusted Collin Sexton's posted points line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 10.5 to 8.5 (-2.0).16.514.512.510.58.56.510.510.514.511.58.58.5Oct 23LAC @ LALOct 27POR @ LALOct 28LAL @ LACOct 30LAL @ GSWNov 1TOR @ LALNov 6POR @ LAL

Trajectory Readout: Across the last 6 active games (Oct 23 to Nov 6), sportsbooks adjusted Collin Sexton's posted points line downward in 2 of 5 game-over-game steps from 10.5 to 8.5 (-2.0).

6-Game Posted Points Ledger (Collin Sexton)

America/Chicago (CT)
Date (CT)MatchupPosted LineMoveActualResult
LAC @ LAL10.5 (+118)—5Under
POR @ LAL(Missed 1g)10.5 (+104)0.09Under
LAL @ LAC14.5 (-111)+4.021Over
LAL @ GSW11.5 (-110)-3.00Under
TOR @ LAL8.5 (-122)-3.014Over
POR @ LAL(Missed 2g)8.5 (-115)0.00Under

Canonical pre-game posted line from licensed partner sportsbooks. Missing or uncaptured feed values always render —.

Sticky Book Anchoring Meter · Balanced Pricing6-Game Window

Collin Sexton Points Sticky Book Anchoring Meter (Book Step-Lag vs. Actual Box-Score Surplus)

Book step adjustment (-2.0) tracks actual window production (-2.3).

Unpriced Book Step-Lag-0.3Max Single-Game Book Step: +4.0
Window Open Line
10.5
Current Posted Line
8.5
Book Cumulative Step
-2.0
Actual Window Avg
8.2
Actual Output Delta
-2.3
Modeled Fair Value
—
Posted Book Step Line vs. Box-Score Output
Book Line Actual Stat
Collin Sexton Sticky Book Anchoring Meter: 6-game Posted Points Line vs Actual Box-Score Output2705Oct 23vs LAC9Oct 27vs POR21Oct 28@ LAC0Oct 30@ GSW14Nov 1vs TOR0Nov 6vs POR
Game (CT)Posted LineBook StepActualBox Surplus
Oct 23 · vs LAC10.5—5-5.5
Oct 27 · vs POR10.50.09-1.5
Oct 28 · @ LAC14.5+4.021+6.5
Oct 30 · @ GSW11.5-3.00-11.5
Nov 1 · vs TOR8.5-3.014+5.5
Nov 6 · vs POR8.50.00-8.5
Verified Player CLV & Write-Up Receipt Vault1 Tracked Write-Up

Collin Sexton Closing-Line Value & Prop Write-Up Receipt Vault (1 Beat, 0 Tied, 0 Lost)

1 Beat / 0 Tied / 0 Lost closing line value record across 1 settled Collin Sexton prop write-up.

Collin Sexton CLV Counts
1 Beat · 0 Tied · 0 Lost
1 Settled CLV Receipt
Date (CT)MatchupMarketRelease QuoteClosing LineActualCLV GradeWrite-Up
Nov 1TOR @ LALPointsOver 8.5 (-116) · DraftKings8.514BeatRead Write-Up →

Archived Settled Collin Sexton Prop Write-Ups

Nov 1 CT · TOR @ LAL · PointsFull Write-Up →

Sexton's existing shot volume can produce the required scoring without a larger rotation role.

Counter-Case: Dončić and Reaves could absorb more of the creation and squeeze Sexton's shot count. Toronto could also keep him away from the paint, leaving a short stint dependent on contested jumpers.

Collin Sexton WagerBird Prop Release & CLV Archive

Date (CT)MatchupMarketReleaseCloseActualCLV Grade
Nov 1TOR @ LALPointsOver 8.58.514Beat

NBA Player Props Closing-Line Value Record (73 Beat, 11 Tied, 36 Lost)

WagerBird grades Closing-Line Value (CLV) by comparing each timestamped release line and price against the release sportsbook's final pre-game closing number (through Nov 6 CT).

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
Prop Lane WindowBeat CloseTied CloseLost Close
Season to date (from Sep 23 CT)731136
Last 30 days (from Oct 8 CT)731136