Temple's mobile rushing attack can exploit Navy's recent defensive concessions and turn a possession-by-possession game into an outright win.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
Temple has averaged 192.3 rushing yards per game at 5.30 per carry through eight games. [260.501–507] Productive rushing possessions can keep the offense out of repeated long-yardage passing situations. That offers a path to finishing drives rather than requiring a succession of difficult throws.
Sheppard's reconstructed season rushing line is 81 carries for 400 yards. His ability to gain yards as a runner gives Temple another way to extend possessions when the initial passing opportunity is closed. Those extensions can keep a potential winning drive alive without demanding a clean-pocket completion on every critical down.
Navy allowed 903 yards on 111 plays across its latest two games. [221.50–65] [257.61–63] Those opponents' production is not an automatic forecast for Temple, but it demonstrates that sustained gains have been available. Turning similar openings into touchdowns rather than empty possessions gives Temple a football route to the upset.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Navy can string together long option drives and keep Temple's offense on the sideline. Even if Temple runs the ball well, settling for field goals instead of touchdowns can leave the upset unfinished. Sheppard's interceptions can also turn manageable field position into easy Navy points. A late quarterback keeper against defenders crowding the interior can preserve a Navy win in a game that otherwise stays close.