Failed third downs and field-goal finishes can keep the combined score below the posted total.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
Northern Illinois has converted 32.71% of its third downs, while San Jose State is at 31.71%. Failed third downs force offenses to punt, attempt kicks or risk possession on fourth down. That creates a route to stalled drives without requiring either defense to dominate every early-down snap.
San Jose State scored 24, 13 and 16 points in its latest three games. Its latest total also included an interception-return touchdown rather than an offensive touchdown. Another game in which the offense must work through sustained possessions rather than return scores would make it harder to build a large combined total.
San Jose State finished its latest game without a touchdown on three red-zone trips, and Luke Weaver took three sacks. Field goals leave points unclaimed after the offense has already used possession time to reach scoring range. Sacks can compound that problem by creating longer passing downs and pushing a drive toward a kick rather than a touchdown.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Northern Illinois can repeat its productive outing against UNLV and sustain enough possessions to change the scoring pattern. San Jose State can attack a defense that has conceded heavily and turn those opportunities into touchdowns instead of field goals. An interception return or a short field can add points without requiring a successful offensive drive. Late catch-up possessions and overtime can defeat the play even after a restrained opening.