Auburn's pass-protection problems and recent defensive leakage give Arkansas a route to keep the game within reach.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
KJ Jackson completed 20 of 34 passes for 229 yards without an interception against Missouri. That production came in a game without Chris Marshall, rather than depending on his return. Maintaining that passing output would give Arkansas a way to extend possessions even when its rushing game struggles.
Byrum Brown has taken 33 sacks across 280 pass attempts plus sacks, an 11.8% sack rate. Negative passing plays make it harder for Auburn to turn ordinary possessions into repeated scoring drives. Arkansas does not need to erase Brown's running game to benefit from occasional drive-killing losses.
Auburn allowed 38 points to LSU and 45 to Ole Miss in its last two games. Those opponents are not interchangeable with Arkansas, but the results show that Auburn has recently struggled to keep opponents from finishing possessions. Arkansas can remain within reach by making ordinary drives count rather than requiring a succession of explosive scores.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Brown can use designed runs and scrambles to keep Auburn ahead of the chains and turn stalled possessions into scoring drives. Auburn can force Arkansas into obvious passing situations if the rushing game fails to generate manageable downs. Arkansas turnovers can create short fields that make Auburn's offense less dependent on sustained execution. If Auburn builds an early lead and continues scoring through the second half, a late Arkansas touchdown may not be enough.