Stonehill's inefficient shot creation and empty possessions keep the combined scoring restrained without requiring Columbia to repeat its weakest shooting performance.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
Stonehill's current adjusted offensive rating is 95.7 points per 100 possessions, following 92.4 last season. Its Fordham game included 16 turnovers and only 63 points. Those empty trips reduce the number of possessions that can become scoring chances without requiring Columbia to play exceptional defense.
Columbia scored 71 against Elon and 120 against Old Westbury. The latter game produced 71 bench points and 16 different scorers. A scoring expectation of 77.1 recognizes Columbia's offensive ability without requiring that blowout's conversion rate to recur.
Stonehill took 40.5% of its shots from three-point range last season and made 31.7% of them. At Fordham, it made 6 of 22 threes. That shot mix leaves its scoring vulnerable to unproductive stretches when perimeter attempts do not fall.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Columbia can turn its offensive-rebounding advantage into immediate putbacks rather than longer possessions. Stonehill can produce a made-three burst and force Columbia to keep scoring. Live-ball turnovers can become transition baskets before either defense is set. A competitive finish with intentional fouling, or overtime, can erase the scoring cushion.