CBB · Home Team TotalKickoff Freeze · Game In ProgressES-MX: Momios Sin Vig

Samford Bulldogs at UNLV Runnin' Rebels: Home Team Total closing line and CLV

Prices as of .

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

Release Line / Price
Team Total (UNLV): Under 84.5 (-120) (-120) at MGM ·
Current Consensus across 3 books
93.5 (1 consensus books · 3 tracked)
Market Move
84.5 to 85.5 (1.0 pt toward Over)
WagerBird Fair Line & Fair Price
80 / -215
Lane CLV record
CBB team totals: 20 Beat / 1 Tied / 26 Lost (47 measured)

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

Over
Vig-free consensus 93.5 -106 (51.5% across 1 books)
Best price: 92.5 -125 at DraftKings
Under
Vig-free consensus 93.5 +106 (48.5% across 1 books)
Best price: 93.5 -110 at BetMGM

SAM @ UNLV Home Team Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

SportsbookOverUnderUpdated (CT)Execution
BetMGM93.5-12593.5-110BetMGM
DraftKings92.5-12592.5-105DraftKings

Full market: 3 sportsbooks, consensus 93.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Opening vs. Pre-Kickoff Closing Consensus

The Home Team Total opened 84.5 and closed 85.5 (median of tracked sportsbooks).

Unlocked WagerBird Release & Closing-Line Value (CLV) Grade

  • Team Total (UNLV): Under 84.5 (-120)
    Released -120 at MGM, Fri, Nov 6, 8:18 PM CT · Fair line 80 · Fair price -215
    Lost to the close

CLV is graded against the pre-kickoff closing line and price at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released.

The WagerBird Brief: Team Total (UNLV): Under 84.5 (-120)

Investment Committee Thesis

Samford's ball security and defensive rebounding can force an already concentrated UNLV offense to score through more settled possessions.

Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)

Concentrated creation
STORR INELIGIBLE · 6 BENCH PTS

Storr is ineligible, leaving Mack and Miles to carry much of the perimeter creation. UNLV's reserves supplied six points in the opener, so that game did not establish a second scoring unit that could sustain the offense independently. More settled possessions place a larger burden on the starting guards to manufacture efficient shots.

Deny the runouts
7 TO · 31 FAST-BREAK PTS

Samford committed seven turnovers against Berry, while UNLV generated 31 fast-break points against Northern Arizona. Secure outlets and controlled entries directly attack one of UNLV's most productive scoring routes. If Samford keeps the ball with its handlers rather than feeding runouts, UNLV has to earn more baskets against an organized defense.

Finish the defensive possession
18 OREB · 21 SECOND-CHANCE PTS

UNLV collected 18 offensive rebounds and scored 21 second-chance points in its opener. Shaver opened with six rebounds and four blocks, giving Samford an interior presence capable of contesting the first shot. Clean box-outs after those contests can remove putbacks and the additional foul opportunities that make the scoring ceiling vulnerable.

Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Mack can punish a conservative defense with pull-up shooting and make difficult possessions productive. Jones and Foumena can keep possessions alive on the offensive glass, especially if Shaver picks up early fouls. The press can turn rushed outlet passes into uncontested baskets before Samford gets organized. A competitive finish can add enough free throws, or overtime possessions, to take UNLV past the scoring ceiling.

CBB Team Totals Closing-Line Value Record (20 Beat, 1 Tied, 26 Lost)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
WindowBeatTiedLostMeasuredBeat %
Season to date201264743.5%
Last 30 days201264743.5%

WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

Preview Live Widget

Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Samford Bulldogs at UNLV Runnin' Rebels (Home Team Total) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/cbb/samford-bulldogs-at-unlv-runnin-rebels-home-team-total-2026-11-07-34096" title="Samford Bulldogs at UNLV Runnin' Rebels Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/cbb/samford-bulldogs-at-unlv-runnin-rebels-home-team-total-2026-11-07-34096">SAM @ UNLV Home Team Total Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>