CBB · TotalFree Pick ReleaseKickoff Market Move: Under 143.5 → 139.5 (-4.0 pts)Fair Value Edge: +17.7% EVES-MX: Momios Sin Vig

PAC @ BRAD Total Fair Value (147.01 / -152) vs 139.5 Market: Free Pick Totals: Over 143.5 (-105)

Prices as of .

By WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475) · Released · Last updated (CT)

Release Line / Price
Totals: Over 143.5 (-105) at MGM ·
Current Consensus across 38 books
139.5 (22 consensus books · 38 tracked)
Market Move
143.5 to 139.5 (4.0 pts toward Under)
WagerBird Fair Line & Fair Price
147.01 / -152 / 60.3% vig-free
+EV%
+17.7% at release · +35.7% at best partner
Value Status
Active edge · Best price 139.5 -110 at DraftKings
Lane CLV record
CBB game totals: 14 Beat / 25 Tied / 18 Lost (57 measured)
Free Pick Release (STR 58)Fair Value Edge: +17.7% EV+35.7% EV at Best Book
Pick SideTotals: Over 143.5 (-105)
Release Line & Price143.5 (-105) · MGM
Modeled Fair Line & Fair Price147.01 / -152 (60.3%)
+EV% Edge vs. Market (139.5)+17.7%

The WagerBird Brief: Totals: Over 143.5 (-105)

Investment Committee Thesis

Moderate pace, substantial perimeter opportunity and scoring beyond the starting units give the combined total several routes past the posted number.

Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)

A moderate possession count is enough
69.8 / 70.2 ADJ TEMPO

Pacific's early-season adjusted tempo is 69.8 and Bradley's is 70.2. Those inputs support a game with enough possessions to score without requiring another blowout-level shooting performance. The scoring pathway is a steady supply of attempts rather than dependence on an extreme transition game.

Perimeter attempts from both rotations
28 / 34 THREE-POINT ATTEMPTS · OPENERS

Pacific attempted 28 threes in its opener and Bradley attempted 34. The significance is the willingness to create perimeter opportunities, not an expectation that Pacific repeats its opening accuracy. Ordinary conversion can contribute meaningfully when both sides continue finding those attempts.

Scoring survives substitutions
33 BENCH POINTS EACH · OPENERS

Both benches contributed 33 points in their opening games. Thornbrue supplies a scoring option for Bradley, while Jones, Harris and McFarland give Pacific different ways to finish possessions. Those options provide a full-game scoring route during the stretches when the starters rest.

Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors

Pacific can spend long stretches organizing its new offense rather than attacking early, reducing the number of scoring chances. Bradley can keep the ball in the half court and force contested attempts without allowing second chances. Missed threes at both ends would make ordinary finishing inside insufficient. A decisive lead could also remove late intentional fouling and leave the closing possessions to less productive combinations.

Why is the PAC @ BRAD total moving?

  • Market line moved 0.5 pts toward Under across 13 tracked sportsbooks.
  • Market line moved 4.0 pts toward Under across 37 tracked sportsbooks.

Vig-free consensus and best partner price

Over
Vig-free consensus 139.5 -101 (50.2% across 22 books)
Best price: 139.5 -110 at DraftKings
Under
Vig-free consensus 139.5 +101 (49.8% across 22 books)
Best price: 140 -110 at Caesars

PAC @ BRAD Total Odds Across Licensed Partner Sportsbooks

SportsbookOverUnderUpdated (CT)Execution
BetMGM139.5-115139.5-105BetMGM
Caesars140-110140-110Caesars
DraftKings139.5-110139.5-110DraftKings
FanDuel139.5-110139.5-110FanDuel
Fanatics140-110140-110Fanatics
ProphetX139.5-117139.5-103ProphetX

Full market: 38 sportsbooks, consensus 139.5. Links shown for licensed books we work with.

Market Movement Summary: PAC @ BRAD Total

Across 38 tracked sportsbooks, the PAC @ BRAD total moved from an opening number of 143.5 to 139.5 toward Under (4.0 pts).

Best current licensed partner quotes: Over 139.5 -110 at DraftKings; Under 140 -110 at Caesars. Quoting books currently span 3.0 pts across the market.

CBB Game Totals Closing-Line Value Record (14 Beat, 25 Tied, 18 Lost)

Download Raw Signal Audit Log (.CSV)
WindowBeatTiedLostMeasuredBeat %
Season to date1425185743.8%
Last 30 days1425185743.8%

WagerBird measures closing-line value (CLV) by comparing each pick's release line and price against the pre-kickoff closing number at the exact sportsbook where the pick was released (settled picks through 2026-11-06).

Cite or Embed This Vig-Free Market Split (Media & Beat Writers)

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Embed live vig-free odds, implied probability split, and fair value telemetry for Pacific Tigers at Bradley Braves (Total) attributed to WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475):

<iframe src="https://wagerbird.com/markets/embed/cbb/pacific-tigers-at-bradley-braves-total-2026-11-07-34123" title="Pacific Tigers at Bradley Braves Total Vig-Free Odds & Implied Probability | WagerBird" width="100%" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:6px;overflow:hidden;" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px;margin-top:4px;">Source: <a href="https://wagerbird.com/markets/cbb/pacific-tigers-at-bradley-braves-total-2026-11-07-34123">PAC @ BRAD Total Vig-Free Odds &amp; Implied Probability</a> by WagerBird Quantitative Research Desk · SkyBurst Technology, Inc. (NJ DGE Vendor #0096475).</p>