A moderate possession count and less exceptional perimeter shooting can keep Ohio below its team-total threshold.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
Last season's adjusted tempos were 69.0 possessions for Ohio and 68.6 for A&T. A game played near that range requires efficient possessions rather than an abundance of extra opportunities to generate a large team score. Making Ohio repeatedly attack a set defense would put more pressure on its shooting to supply that efficiency.
Ohio made 16 of 38 threes in its opener, a 42.1% result. That perimeter volume makes its scoring sensitive to shooting variance even after allowing for improved personnel. Fewer conversions on those possessions would reduce Ohio's output without requiring A&T to win the game.
Ohio's opening starters played 167 minutes, while the reserves supplied 12 points in 33 minutes. The scoring therefore came predominantly from the opening group rather than a broad distribution through the rotation. If a separated game permits a longer reserve run, fewer possessions would finish with the same concentrated group of scorers.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Ohio's new perimeter group could make the opener's long-range accuracy repeatable rather than temporary. A&T could concede clean perimeter catches and second-chance putbacks, allowing efficient scoring without a very fast game. Live-ball giveaways could give Ohio easy transition baskets. A tight finish could add intentional-foul points, and overtime would count against this team total.