San Diego State's interior size and a less forgiving shot-quality matchup should pull Colorado's opening-night shooting back toward ordinary levels.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
Colorado made ten of nineteen threes in its opener and shot 75.9% from the field during its second-half surge. That conversion rate turned a two-point halftime lead into a comfortable win, but it does not establish a repeatable scoring floor. More ordinary finishing would leave the offense needing additional possessions or free throws to reach the same scoring level.
Bear Cherry blocked four shots in the opener, while Luca Vincini added ten points and seven rebounds in sixteen minutes. Both are listed at six feet ten, giving San Diego State another substantial interior option when Cherry rests. More contested finishes can force Colorado to depend on jump shooting rather than sustain its opening-night conversion near the basket.
San Diego State allowed 46.2% on two-pointers and 48.2% effective field-goal shooting across its previous season. Those are historical team figures rather than proof that the new rotation will perform identically. They nevertheless describe the relevant mechanism: make interior attempts less efficient and require Colorado to win more possessions through perimeter execution.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Colorado's guards can beat initial containment and turn paint help into clean perimeter attempts. Hargress and Inman can repeat their opening accuracy and punish the space outside. Cherry foul trouble can weaken the interior resistance and create easier finishes. A close finish brings extra free throws, while overtime can lift Colorado beyond 76 points even after a successful regulation defensive performance.