Drexel's unsettled ball handling and a moderate possession count keep combined scoring below the total.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
Drexel lost four starters during the offseason and committed 21 turnovers in its opener. Disrupted possessions can end before a shot or force the next offensive action to begin late in the clock. Colgate does not need to reproduce the previous opponent's defensive pressure for some of that execution friction to remain.
Drexel's previous team allowed opponents to shoot 30.0% from three on 19.1 attempts per game. That historical profile argues against automatically giving Colgate both abundant perimeter attempts and unusually efficient shooting. Colgate may have to create more of its scoring through contested possessions and second chances instead.
Drexel made eight of 25 threes in its opener, while its previous team converted 66.1% of free throws. Those figures leave room for improvement, but neither establishes an automatic source of efficient scoring. If perimeter shots remain ordinary, foul-line trips must do more of the work to sustain a scoring surge.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
Colgate can punish help defense with an early run of made threes. Drexel's reserve groups can turn live-ball takeaways into transition baskets rather than merely trading empty trips. Foul trouble in either interior rotation could produce repeated bonus free throws. A tight finish followed by overtime is the clearest route to a late scoring surge.