South Dakota's scoring stays below the threshold when a more ordinary possession budget and empty trips prevent another paint-and-free-throw surge.
Fundamental Case (3 Drivers)
South Dakota's prior-season pace was 70.5 possessions per forty minutes, slower than Fullerton's profile. The matchup projection allows acceleration to 73.9 regulation possessions rather than repeating the fastest recent game environments. At that pace, the Coyotes' scoring projection is 82, leaving room for productive offense without requiring another exceptional scoring night.
South Dakota made 17 of 50 three-point attempts in its first two games. That 34.0% accuracy is close to its prior-season 33.1%, so the early scoring does not establish a new perimeter shooting level. A projection of 25 attempts and 8.4 makes leaves the Coyotes dependent on sustained paint finishing and foul-line access to reach the highest scoring outcomes.
Fullerton's prior opponents turned the ball over on 19.9% of possessions. South Dakota committed 15 turnovers in its most recent game against Northern Kentucky. If those empty trips recur, offensive rebounds need not translate into an uninterrupted stream of scoring opportunities.
Red Team Counter-Case & Risk Factors
South Dakota can attack Fullerton's smaller starting frontcourt and generate repeated second chances. Buzelis and van Bussel can force help near the basket, creating both free throws and open perimeter attempts. Fullerton's missed jumpers can also feed transition opportunities before the defense is organized. A close finish with intentional fouling or overtime can erase the scoring cushion even after an otherwise controlled game.