Roster turnover and a slower possession baseline make sustained half-court scoring a tougher route than the opening blowouts suggest.
Caso Fundamental (3 Factores)
Northern Iowa played at 63.6 possessions per game last season and Furman at 66.5. Settled half-court possessions require more clock than the transition chances available against opening-week opponents. The first half also ends before late intentional fouling can extend the scoring.
Furman made 39.1% of its threes in its opening two games, compared with 32.8% last season. With more than half of its current field-goal attempts coming from beyond the arc, a few misses can remove several scoring opportunities from a short period. Clean looks remain dangerous, but the opening conversion rate is not necessary for the offense to remain perimeter-oriented.
Northern Iowa returns 7% of its scoring and added eight newcomers. That places initiating, spacing and finishing responsibilities in new combinations during its first road test. Longer setup possessions and interrupted actions provide a path to empty trips without requiring every shooter to have a poor night.
Red Team (Riesgos y Contra-Tesis)
Live-ball mistakes can let either side score before the defense gets set. Johnston can turn his size advantage into offensive rebounds and extra possessions. House and Kell can punish help defense with catch-and-shoot threes. Early interior fouls can put both teams in the bonus and produce points without taking much time off the clock.