Alexander's restored creation and Boston University's foul-line access can keep the first half connected without requiring Northwestern's opening shooting burst to continue.
Caso Fundamental (3 Factores)
Alexander scored 29 points in 35 minutes at Brown after an injury had limited him to all but one missed game the previous season. His return gives Boston University an established player to initiate possessions when the initial action breaks down. That matters early because the starting group has a way to answer a scoring run without depending entirely on contested jump shots.
Boston University attempted 63 free throws against 105 field-goal attempts in its opening two games. That rate should not be assumed to repeat, but it demonstrates a scoring route that does not require a hot perimeter half. Making Northwestern defend drives and interior touches without fouling can keep otherwise uneven offensive stretches productive.
Northwestern made ten of fourteen first-half three-point attempts against Stony Brook. Repeating that efficiency would require another exceptional conversion rate, even if the offense creates good looks. Boston University can remain within reach by contesting those attempts, finishing possessions and making Northwestern execute again.
Red Team (Riesgos y Contra-Tesis)
West can beat the first defender and create clean perimeter looks before Boston University establishes its defense. Northwestern can also collect offensive rebounds that turn solid initial stops into scoring possessions. Alexander getting into foul trouble or committing live-ball turnovers would remove the most reliable way to answer those runs. Another hot three-point half could produce an early separation even if Boston University executes reasonably well.