Series 1 · Foundations

Series 1 · Foundations · No prerequisite

Read any sports market like a price.

Every line is a probability with a fee inside it. Foundations teaches you to read both, then puts you on the Terminal’s Odds Screen and Board while you learn.

$497

SMT 100 + SMT 101
A 12-month enrollment year

Terminal access while you learn

21 Terminal days600 points3 GEM picks

Enroll in Foundations · $497

Every lesson is open from day one. 67 lessons across SMT 100 and SMT 101.

SMT 101 · Lesson 04 of 09Implied probability

What does −110 really say?Every price is a probability in disguise.

Side A · −110110 ÷ (110 + 100)
52.4%
Side B · −110110 ÷ (110 + 100)
52.4%
The fee inside the market52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8%. The 4.8% over 100 is the overround, built into both sides.
4.8%
100%
Break-evenTo profit at −110 a position has to win more than
52.4%
Worksheet · Implied Probability SheetOpens on the Odds Screen

✓What you will be able to do

Four skills.

The ones every later series builds on.

1Read any price as a probability

American, decimal or fractional, turned into the win rate it needs.

2Measure the margin inside it

The fee in every market, and the fair price under it.

3Explain why a price moved

Opening prices, line moves, price moves and key numbers.

4Grade it against the close

Why the closing price is the reference, on the Odds Screen and the Board.

1Foundations

What’s inside.

Two courses. One price.

SMT 100First Principles

58 lessonsThe reading behind every series, in five Parts. The Terminal is shown in every lesson.

Part I · The Structure of Sports Markets 12Part II · Price Formation and the Model 15Part III · Information and the Price 11Part IV · Risk, Size and Rules 10Part V · Measurement and the Record 10
SMT 101Principles of Sports Markets

9 lessonsEach with a worksheet. The last one runs on the live Odds Screen and Board.

  1. 01
    Market Structure and Settlement

    How a position settles: win, loss, push or void

  2. 02
    Market Types and Payoffs

    Moneyline, spread, total, team total, player and outright markets

  3. 03
    Price Notation

    American, decimal and fractional prices, converted

  4. 04
    Implied Probability

    Any price as the win rate it needs to break even

  5. 05
    Operator Margin

    The fee inside every price, measured

  6. 06
    Price Formation and Movement

    How opening prices are set, and why they move

  7. 07
    Market Efficiency and the Closing Price

    Why the close is the reference

  8. 08
    Position Sizing and Capital Allocation

    Units, exposure and runs of losses

  9. 09
    Applied Session: The Odds Screen and the Board

    Every method in the course, on the live screens

▶Terminal access while you learn

On the Terminal.

Not just reading about it.

21

Terminal days

Spent one per calendar day you open the Terminal, any time in your enrollment year. Each day opens the Odds Screen and the Board.

600

Points

Credited when you enroll. A pick costs its signal strength in points. Points stay on your account.

3

GEM picks

Released picks at signal strength 96 and up, included without spending points.

Where Foundations leads

1Foundations$4972Operator$1,7953Systems Trader$2,995★And on to Command$23,995

Any series, System or Annual License bought in the last 12 months credits in full toward Command. Nobody pays twice.

Enroll in Foundations · $497

Not ready yet? Start free.

The 5 tools of every successful sports trader.

The Sports Trader’s Toolkit, the free e-book that comes before Foundations: markets, models, research, system and data, one read.

We don’t sell your information. Unsubscribe anytime.

// Questions

Fair questions.

Do I need experience?

No. Foundations has no prerequisite. SMT 100 starts with how a market is built, and SMT 101 takes you from a price to the Terminal.

What is a Terminal day?

One calendar day you open the Terminal. You have 21, to spend any time in your 12-month enrollment year. Each day opens the Odds Screen and the Board, the two screens Foundations teaches.

Does anything renew?

No. Foundations is one payment. Every lesson stays open for your 12-month enrollment year, and your points stay on your account after it.

What comes after Foundations?

Operator, the second of seven series. Anything you buy in the last 12 months credits in full toward WagerBird Command.

Is this advice?

No. Foundations is education and research. It teaches you to read a market; every decision is your own.

© 2026 WagerBird · 100 Congress Avenue, Suite 2000, Austin, Texas 78701
For education and research only, not financial or betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future results.